What led to SA’s recent surge in Load Shedding?

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Why Stage 6 is Back?

The Minister of Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, has highlighted that the lack of maintenance at Eskom’s power-generating units has finally caught up with the country. Consequently, South Africans should prepare for an extended period of intensified load shedding, at least in the short term.

During a media address regarding the return of stage 6 load shedding, the minister explained that several factors contributed to this situation:

1. Increased unplanned losses from significant power units going offline.
2. An upsurge in planned maintenance following the winter season.
3. Elevated electricity demand exceeding the usual levels.
4. Losses in pumped storage facilities.

The current state of stage 6 load shedding is indefinite, with updates anticipated as conditions evolve. There is some optimism that the situation may improve toward the end of the week.

Ramokgopa emphasized that Eskom’s power units have suffered from years of neglect in terms of maintenance and the philosophy of upkeep, and this negligence has finally caught up with the nation.

However, thanks to financial relief provided to Eskom, specifically the National Treasury’s R254 billion debt relief strategy, Eskom is now committed to a rigorous planned maintenance schedule, which may affect the availability of electricity supply.

“In the short-term, we must acknowledge the possibility of increased power interruptions,” Ramokgopa stated. “This possibility arises if planned maintenance coincides with unplanned losses, leading to an intensification of load shedding, which is the predicament we currently face.”

Ramokgopa also pointed out that planned maintenance was curtailed during the winter months as a measure to mitigate the risk of extensive load shedding due to heightened demand. During winter, planned maintenance was limited to approximately 2,500MW. However, now that winter is behind us, planned maintenance has been increased to between 5,000MW and 6,800MW.

This shift has contributed to the intensification of load shedding, moving from the suspension of outages during the day to the more frequent stage 2 and stage 4 rotations observed in recent weeks. This rotation strategy was maintained as long as Eskom kept unplanned outages below 15,000MW. However, the situation changed this week when losses exceeded 17,000MW.

The combined increase in planned and unplanned outages has created a power deficit of approximately 5,500MW to 6,000MW, resulting in the implementation of stage 6 load shedding.

Furthermore, the country is facing challenges related to user demand. While the winter demand typically peaked at 33,000MW (lower than expected), the summer demand profile is currently exceeding projections. South Africa’s typical summer demand is around 27,000MW, but it is currently surpassing 28,000MW and occasionally spiking to 30,000MW. This additional demand places further strain on the grid, potentially leading to more severe load shedding.

Sourced from: BussinesTech