Op-Ed – Hell, why don’t you go?
When compared with the total eligible voting population of just more than 40-million people, statistics provided by the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) indicate that more than 13-million South Africans who are eligible to vote have not registered and will, therefore, not vote in this election cycle. That’s one in three eligible voters being no-shows. With this number in mind, it’ll be interesting to see if the governing ANC can maintain its grip on the majority vote.
Our last rodeo in 2016 was a year of dramatic elections all over the world. Most notably, a tiny island nation voted to exit the EU and is now suffering for it. The US’s dramatic decline became apparent when, in a somewhat unexpected outcome, a reality TV star was elected president. In South Africa, the August 2016 local government elections also saw some shifts in the political landscape.
The ANC endured a lousy election. In the midst of those “nine wasted years,” as Jacob Zuma’s tenure was described by his successor, the party’s tussle with its constituents saw it tumble by 8.04 percentage points in the popular vote.
The Democratic Alliance and Economic Freedom Fighters were well-positioned to pick up the pieces. In its first municipal poll, the EFF managed to secure 8.19% of the aggregate vote. Their strong strike ultimately set up leader Julius Malema to secure the ultimate “kingmaker” status across South Africa’s major metros. (It would even set up one of the Mail & Guardian’s most iconic covers, with him atop a throne).
So let’s recap what happened the last time South Africans voted at a municipal level.
The overarching showstopper headline was that support for the ANC declined significantly. The closed fist of a combined opposition vote for the DA and EFF saw control of three major Gauteng municipalities — Johannesburg, Tshwane and Moghale City — wrenched from Africa’s oldest liberation movement.
In Gauteng, the country’s financial engine room, the ANC went from 60% of the vote in 2011, to 54% in 2014 and then to 46% in 2016. This eight percentage-point drop in support in the two-year span between 2014 and 2016 was shared as gains by the DA and EFF. Interestingly, support for the DA actually decreased from 33% in 2011 to 31% in 2014, but then jumped to 37% in 2016. The EFF, newcomers to the political scene in 2013, claimed 11% in 2016, up by only one percentage point from 10% in 2014 (the party didn’t exist in 2011).
The relative successes of the opposition altered the landscape of the country’s metros and strongly set up their future influence on local government.
But as much as the boys and girls blue, in particular, touted the results, it was more a case of loss for the ANC rather than a pure win for the opposition. The sins of incumbency if you will.
As voter behaviour expert Dr Collette Schulz-Herzenberg told us this week: “If all three parties suffer massive losses and their traditional partisan base stays at home, then you’re not going to see much change. In the 2016 election, the DA did better from its only traditional supporters but not by much. What actually happened was ANC supporters stayed at home. This bolstered the percentage for the DA, without them having to attract new support.
“It seems to me — and if you look at the numbers — the majority of South Africans struggle to find somewhere to go from their previous traditional home.”
Read more of Schulz-Herzenberg’s research on South African non-voters to gain a better understanding of her argument.
More than simple distrust in the governing party, over the past few years, we have seen a number of surveys and research studies emerging that support the anecdotal evidence that we’re losing faith in the political process. One such report, released by Afrobarometer in July, found that only 54% of South Africans believe that democracy is preferable to any other form of government. This is a 16 percentage point drop in less than a decade and places our country near the bottom of the 34 countries surveyed — only Lesotho, Madagascar, Tunisia and Eswatini are worse off. Satisfaction with how democracy is working has also declined significantly: from 60% in 2011 to 42% in 2018.
South Africa’s apathy and low turnout may well continue to define local elections. The bulk of the country’s electorate are, naturally, ANC supporters, given the well-known lineage of the party’s revolutionary role in the liberation struggle. The problem, at least from the standpoint of a democratic theorist, is that they are not speaking with their votes when they begin to feel disillusioned. Instead of jumping ship, they are abandoning the voyage altogether.
Are we in for more of the same or will we, as a nation, make our voices heard?
Show up and show out!
By Kiri Rupiah & Luke Feltham of The Mail & Guardian
The opinions expressed in this article are not necessarily the opinions of ShowMe Vaal or the ShowMe group