NATO’s bullish new plan to fight Russia on the seas, the skies & in space could backfire

As you would expect, NATO insists that this cross-continental strategy will serve only defensive purposes and the US-led group has also emphasized that it does not believe that Russian attacks are imminent. In other words, NATO presents this initiative as an act of due diligence: preparing for the worst imaginable scenario, while helping to avoid it ever becoming a reality by deterrence, as German Minister of Defense Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has duly underlined.

When it comes to why the measures are necessary, NATO, of course, blames Russia. Specifically, it claims Moscow has a recent record of militarily challenging the status quo in Georgia and Ukraine and probing the bloc’s capabilities in the Baltic and Black Sea areas. Moreover, this story goes, Russia has generally beefed up its military capabilities and the entire continent should apparently be worried.

Moscow, of course, sees things differently. In the Kremlin’s view, it is NATO that is encroaching on its security in its immediate neighbourhood, especially by expanding its activities in Ukraine and offering the latter full membership, in principle if not – yet – in reality.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko has warned that what he describes as NATO turning “the Black Sea into an arena of military confrontation” is “an extremely dangerous path fraught with the risk of military incidents and escalation.”

Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu has been even more outspoken. Directly referring to Kramp-Karrenbauer’s comments, he has accused NATO of refusing to have an equal dialogue on security questions and instead using the pretext of deterrence to concentrate forces close to Russia’s borders, in – he clearly implies – a manner that goes beyond deterrence and defence, signalling potential aggression.

Pointedly, he added what sounded like a reference to Germany’s overreach and defeat in World War II, saying Kramp-Karrenbauer should remember “how things ended up” in the past.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has also highlighted that the issue is causing concern, if in an indirect manner, by reiterating that his country is opposed not only to NATO membership for Ukraine, but also to the bloc spreading its infrastructure in the country. This is not a new position, but the reminder at this point clearly has to do with NATO’s Black Sea plans.

It would be easy to add more examples of how sour the mood is all around, such as the recent cutting of formal diplomatic ties between Russia and NATO or the public statement by the latter’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg that the relationship is at a post-Cold War “low point.”

No wonder, one is tempted to say, when Stoltenberg cannot think of a better response to Russia’s geopolitically quite ordinary concerns than dismissing them out of hand as simply unfounded. “Just trust us, we mean no harm!” is a rather daft statement between states and blocs, especially when the relationship, as Stoltenberg admits, is already abysmal.

But we need to go beyond official announcements and the war of words. NATO’s explanation for its new Baltic and Black Sea initiative is self-serving, as you would expect in politics. More importantly, it is also likely to be very incomplete. Publicly, the bloc presents its step as a response to Russia’s actions. While these certainly play a role, an important part of reality gets lost that way. The new plan also seems to reflect attempts to settle debates and resolve tensions within NATO.

By Tarik Cyril Amar Russia Todayoriginally published in