Dams – Latest levels: Winelands and Cape Town
Latest report (updated 8th January 2018) on the main dams serving
Cape Town City and nearby Boland/Overberg towns
Last week the water consumption stabilised at 10.6 M.cuM, 1.2% of total capacity; up from the average of the preceding two weeks of 9.4 M.cuM (averaged due to the uneven reporting over the prior 15 days). Combined dam levels dropped from 30.6% of capacity to 29.5% over the week.
During the same period in 2016, the main dams dropped by a substantially higher 14.5 M.cuM, declining by 1.6% to 43.8% of full capacity.
Here’s the graph of the weekly change in stored water, 2017 versus 2016, commencing from end of winter. Dec-25 was probably under-stated while Jan-01 was likely over-stated.
The red-brown line shows changes for this year while the grey-shaded area shows what happened during the same weeks last year. Minus figures mean net dam outflows.]
Current status and what should you be doing?
Combined water stored in the 6 main dams fell to 262 M.cuM (177 M.cuM of easily accessible water) (last year, levels dropped to 389 and 304 M.cuM respectively over the same period).
There remains a risk that the authorities may yet switch to the rationing/collection phase of the crisis plan, however I believe that they will do everything possible to avoid this. Therefore it is possible that yet further reductions in the daily water consumption targets may be introduced (I believe that a cut to on or below 50L/person/day is appropriate until the rains arrive.
Be aware that “False News” is starting to spread around.
Some people are just malicious, relying on others being very believing; while some are using the opportunity to push personal views or positions although they may be inaccurate and/or inappropriate in the situation; and yet others seem to be setting out to be deliberately hurtful or aim to spread confusion. It is therefore becoming more necessary than ever to be sceptical of everything that one reads on water-related subjects, especially on social media. Here are a few “thought-starters” on what you might do!
1. Be accurately informed. Be sceptical about anything unexpected or sensational that you might read or have shared to you. If you have any doubts, do a search and see if any reputable source also carries or endorses the story. Join one or two water information social media groups, like Water Shedding Western Cape, where a large body of engaged, serious people offer good advice and help sift the important news out of the mass of mis-information flowing around. Feel free to ask questions and for advice there. Perhaps additionally join (or form) a neighbourhood ‘WhatsApp’ group to also remain locally informed and up-to-date. Having accurate information could be priceless if disruption occurs. Lastly, don’t share anything yourself unless you are happy with its accuracy.
2. Assume that the authorities are unlikely to do anything illogical, provocative or stupid. Under such stressful circumstances every decision should be receiving closest scrutiny before implementation. They may make mistakes but do give them the benefit of the doubt – there are a large number of highly skilled and dedicated people working every available hour to get us all through this challenging time. Take time to check the City of Cape Town website ‘water dashboard’ – this becomes more and more informative by the day. Also find any local website for your municipality and subscribe for updated news flows.
3. Ignore political points scoring, especially comments and stories that keep on referring back to apparent mistakes in the distant past and that argue how easy it should have been to forsee this happening. Possible risks were indeed reportedly flagged and considered over the years but for whatever reasons at the time, our political representatives elected to favour other priorities. If they could have their time again I guess they would now do some of it differently. When taking your own decisions, it makes sense to focus on helping getting us all through this challenge and making it right for the future. Afterwards there will be time for recriminations and blaming for past mistakes.
4. We are where we are and need to get through this. Together. Out there will be ignorants, mischief-makers, don’t-cares, cheats, thieves, black-marketers, etc, etc; none of whom will be helping. Some people constantly attack township dwellers and others the farming community while others are upset with visitors. The fact is that all parts of our society needs to survive and that we all need to do whatever we can to stop the taps running dry. Do your best, spread the word, help others if you can and support the authorities to develop the extra water production capacity to help ensure that this never happens again. Fortunately there is a large and growing body of folks who appear to be trying to do everything that they can to save water and avoid “Day Zero”; I believe that they will triumph and be the winners.
5. Do install a rainfall capture and storage system. It is not too late. Those with tanks have this past week captured many litres of fresh water that will help to see them through these dry times.
How long will the remaining fresh water last?
The lower consumption pattern across December appears to be extending into this New Year. If this pattern continues then the total consumption for January could be less than 50 M.cuM, which would be far better than the 80.9 M.cuM used a year ago in January 2017 and also better than our current estimate for this month of 63.6 M.cuM.
Happily, CoCT reports that the number of consumers using less than 87L/day jumped from 36% to 54% last week – an excellent outcome! Please encourage everybody you know to keep going.
Thanks to all you great Water Warriors out there who are trying so hard.
Consequently, our estimate shows that, provided water consumption remains cut to a minimum, then currently stored water should last into June 2018, so survival seems more assured. More importantly, the earliest point at which the authorities should have to institute water rationing/collection – with all its attendant disruption – has shifted out to May according to my calculations and, if the current low consumption pattern continues, could move out to June; allowing more time for winter rains to arrive and extra water production facilities to come into production.
Past records show that winter rains sometimes commence by 2nd week of May and more reliably tend to begin by end-May. So let us keep saving hard and we should squeak through.
What are the authorities doing now?
City of Cape Town reported that the amount of water that it drew from the dams dropped to average 559 ML/day while the amount of water used from all sources was 578 ML/day, once more indicating that the City is generating around 19-20 ML/day from its own facilities. These are both good figures and show continuing savings in water consumed, notwithstanding the extremely hot weather.
Today excellent news was released by the metro – the aquifers around Cape Town will deliver more water than expected. It is now estimated that at least 150 million litres of water per day will be delivered by the Cape Flats, Table Mountain Group and Atlantis aquifers.
“These are the preliminary findings:
- The Cape Flats aquifer will deliver 80 million litres per day (up from 45 ML/day).
- The Table Mountain Group aquifer will deliver 40 million litres per day (up from 20 ML/day).
- The Atlantis aquifer will deliver 30 million litres per day (up from 25 ML/day).
Prime locations have been identified to abstract more water from these three aquifers. Drilling rigs will be moved onto sites from this week in the Cape Flats aquifer zone.”
The City announcement emphasises “an environmentally sensitive approach”, “sustainable water abstraction”, “generations of Capetonians will benefit” from this “responsible use of groundwater “.
This is probably the best news we have heard since the crisis started. What is good about this is that it can be implemented quickly so the City has invest more funds in this initiative.
The desalination plants at Monwabisi, Strandfontein and the V&A Waterfront which are all on track and under way.
Cape Town City reports that it has received 45 000 comments to date on the proposed “Drought Charge” and has decided to extend the comment period to midnight on Monday 15 January 2018.(see City’s summary here and my assessment here). Have your say – email any concerns and recommendations to drought.charge@capetown.gov.za.
See details of Cape Town’s planned interventions to produce fresh water here.
Learn about water savings efforts by other Cape municipalities – read more here.
Will the weather help?
The cool La Niña is now forecast to continue through to autumn and then to fade to a slightly below-ave-temp neutral condition that favours rain.
Last weekend brought gentle rain to many parts of the Cape with useful 20+ mm falling in the mountains (Dwarshoek registered 35 mm) this followed good rains in the mountain catchments a week earlier, all to the benefit of the four main dams located there. It was particularly gratifying to read of the many people whose rainwater tanks were recharged by the rainfall.
Showers are forecast for 18th January and again in the middle of February. However, we are now in what usually the driest time of the year and warm to hot and dry conditions will generally prevail.
Note that rain run-off this past year was above average in the mountain catchments.
In Summary: outflows exceeded inflows by 10.6 M.cuM and combined dam levels fell to 29.5%.
Here are the levels of the six main dams serving the Cape Town/Overberg/Boland area. The four mountain dams continue to hold more water than they did this time last year.
Here are some of our thoughts of possible implications of “Day Zero”.
Plan ahead for possible water outages; here are points that could help.
Read our Indoors Water Savings Ideas here.
Read our Outdoors Water Savings Ideas here
Read about a D-i-Y household rainwater harvesting and tank system here
Read about South Africa’s desalination policies and initiatives.
Click here to see Winelands Weather forecast of possible near-term rain.
Report instances of piping failures and incorrect use to municipalities.
In Cape Town the contact details of the 24-hour Technical Operation Centre are: Email: waterTOC@capetown.gov.za Telephone: 0860103089 (choose option2: water-related faults) or SMS: 31373 (max 160 characters).
Tom.
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