Cape Water and Dams Report
Dams – Latest levels: Winelands and Cape Town
Report nr. 97 (updated 9th April 2018) on the main dams serving
Cape Town City and nearby Boland/Overberg towns
Net outflows from the main dams totalled 3.3 M.cuM, or 0.3% of capacity (vs the preceding week’s 3.6 M.cuM), and combined storage dropped from 21.4% to 21.1% of total capacity. This week’s figure is slightly understated because of the 6-day reporting week following Easter.
During the same week in 2017 the dams dropped by 9.2 M.cuM (1.0%) to 24.8% of full capacity.
How long will the water last?
There is no change to last week’s prediction. We continue to improve against our “Success Day” target to have at least 100 M.cuM of water in storage at end-June 2018.
This shows an interesting picture. The total net outflows from the six main dams across the period from November 2016-April 2017 was 334 M.cuM. The comparative figure for the period November 2017-April 2018 is presently predicted to to be just 167 M.cuM, precisely half of the prior year outflows. An outstanding water saving effort! No wonder the world is watching the progress in Cape Town with growing admiration. Well done, everybody.
(Here is our model predicting the amount of water likely to be stored in the dams by mid-year.)
Putting it in context!
Average daily draw from the dams by the Metro as at 9th April was 485 ML/d while water used from “all sources” lifted marginally to 516 ML/d. This implies that the augmentation contribution at 31ML/d reverted toward previous levels. It seems that the Atlantis aquifer is once more in full production. However, no extra water from the temporary desalination plants is detected at this time.
(Graph tracking overall use and production of extra water through the augmentation efforts).
On our tracker chart we are now at point red ‘X’ (now 21.1% of capacity on 9th April), comfortably above the minimum performance level and, provided useful rain is received in June, on course to intersect the red dotted “success line” in June. Once this happens then “Day Zero” is safely deferred until after winter.
(see here for a detailed explanation of how the chart is to be read).
Just how bad is the overall situation? Looking more widely at the state of all 43 larger dams in the Western Cape,
– 4 dams stand at zero (already completely empty)
– 11 dams stand at less than 10% of capacity
– 10 dams stand between 10% and 20% of capacity
– 18 dams stand at over 20% of capacity.
Unfortunately the very big dams such as Clanwilliam (6%), Brandvlei (4.5%), Kwaggaskloof (9.2%) are now all under 10%, with Theewaterskloof (10.2%) almost as bad. The entire area’s water storage is now in poor shape and there is no reserve in hand whatsoever should the coming winter once more bring below-average rain.
What are the authorities doing now?
Given the risky situation, the City of Cape Town and other municipalities are all planning to spend massive amounts over the coming 3 years in order to develop sufficient extra water production facilities to make the water system more resilient and able to survive further rainfall shortages.
In summary, the proposed capital budget amounts for Cape Town are:
2018/19 : ground water R1540 million, re-use R 872 million, desalination R 1 million; total R2413 m.
2019/20 : re-use R 1500 million; total R1500 m.
2020/21 : re-use R 1000 million, desalination R 1000 million; total R2000 million.
2021/22 : re-use R 951 million, desalination R 1000 million; total R1951 million.
2022/23 : re-use R 900 million, desalination R 1000 million; total R1900 million.
The following two charts taken from the Metro’s proposed budget document show that while planned expenditure in almost all other categories will essentially remain flat, the amount budgeted for water and sanitation (light blue line) is intended to ramp up very sharply and to consume fully 28.5% of the Metro’s entire budget in 2018/19. In trying to minimise consequent tariff increases, other operating budgets in the Metro have been stripped of all non-essential expenditure.
In order to partly fund the increased capital investment sharp increases in the sanitation and water tariffs will still be needed.
While the average increase for next year will be 27%, the tariff increase at the lowest 0-6KL consumption level will be 55%. Sanitation cost will escalate yet more sharply at 79%.
The City also plans to introduce an additional fixed monthly charge starting at R56.00 per month for a basic 15 mm water meter (rising to R22500.00 pm for a 300 mm connection). It is argued that this fixed charge structure will provide the City with dependable minimum revenue to cover the basic cost of distributing potable water to all properties, no matter how actual consumption may vary in future.
Indigent homes will not pay the fixed charge and will receive free water up to 10,500 litres per month.
How is the City’s long-term water augmentation plan developing?
There has been no information given on the status of the individual augmentation projects. One has the impression that they are slipping.
See updated details of Cape Town’s planned interventions to produce fresh water here.
Learn about water savings efforts by other Cape municipalities – read more here.
Do visit the City of Cape Town website to see additional graphically presented information regarding the water situation – it is very helpful. See the full water status presentation here.
What ought you to be doing?
Read the information published by your municipality about the proposed budgets for the coming 3-5 years. Increases are being proposed in all areas and will be particularly sharp in the categories of water and sanitation. The opportunity to comment and make suggestions is now open. This is your opportunity to have your say. Do so by visiting your municipality website and record your comments.
When you do so please endeavour to to be constructive. Bear in mind that the municipalities do not make a profit on any services that they deliver to you, and they are duty-bound to cover the cost of doing so. We all need security of water supply and sanitation services. Help your municipality to understand how best and most economically to supply such services to you.
Will the weather help?
During last week no significant rain fell at the dams but there was a good 30 mm fall at Dwarsberg last week which should be making its way to the Berg River Dam.
April is an important month. Although it is before the recognised winter months, because it marks the change of the seasons, April weather constellations can see the NW to SE flows that prevail across the centre of the country shift toward the west and bring early rain to the inner Western Cape where it is so desperately needed at the moment. One such event is forecast to happen on 15th April when strong rains might fall in places. Hopefully the catchments will receive some of this.
Massive low pressure systems are passing some 1000 km south of the country at the moment but are unlikely to influence our weather. There may be sporadic rain on 13th but no other large systems are forecast before early May.
As climatologist Piotr Wolski’s recent study shows, April rainfall can give some indication as to how the year’s rains may turn out. So let us hope for solid above-average rainfall this month.
In Summary: outflows exceeded inflows by 3.3 M.cuM. Combined levels fell to 21.1% of capacity.
Here are the levels of the six main dams serving the Cape Town/Overberg/Boland area.
Plan ahead for possible water outages; here are points that could help you.
Read our Indoors Water Savings Ideas here.
Read our Outdoors Water Savings Ideas here
Read about a D-i-Y household rainwater harvesting and tank system here
Read about South Africa’s desalination policies and initiatives.
Click here to see Winelands Weather forecast of possible near-term rain.
Report instances of piping failures and incorrect use to municipalities.
In Cape Town the contact details of the 24-hour Technical Operation Centre are: Email: waterTOC@capetown.gov.za Telephone: 0860103089 (choose option2: water-related faults) or SMS: 31373 (max 160 characters).
Tom Brown.
Retired international businessman with a background in Finance and IT; and now a fruit farmer, with a passion for the weather and climate.
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