COVID-19 in South Africa – Predictions versus reality
COVID-19 in South Africa – Predictions versus reality
Pandemics, Data, and Analytics (PANDA) co-ordinator Nick Hudson has slated South Africa’s COVID-19 modelling, which he said amounts to scaremongering.
In his latest article, Hudson said that “just as one group of modellers goes to ground after getting things catastrophically wrong for foreseeable reasons, a new one emerges to repeat the trick”.
Hudson is referring to modelling which predicts that “the Western Cape is about to be ravaged by COVID-19.
He previously highlighted that the official modelling of South Africa’s projected mortalities from COVID-19 started at 375,000, which was completely wrong.
This exaggerated mortality figure “scared the living daylights” out of President Cyril Ramaphosa, which he said resulted in the strict and prolonged level 5 lockdown.
He said that over time, these forecasts have been significantly reduced to 40,000 mortalities, which he believes is still a drastic over-estimate. Hudson has now shifted his attention to the latest Western Cape modelling, which shows that the province has not reached its peak yet.
Western Cape Premier Alan Winde recently said the peak in the province seems to be later than was originally projected and is likely to take place from end of July to beginning of August. He further said this peak is flatter than was originally projected but would last longer and result in “potentially more cumulative deaths of about 10,000 people during the pandemic”.
“The virus could be with us for longer than we thought, with this first peak only ending towards the end of November,” said Winde.
Hudson slated this modelling, saying confirmed COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions, and deaths are all slowing down in the province.
“The good news is that the Western Cape has passed peak mortality, our healthcare services have withstood the onslaught, and we are on the way out of this nightmare,” he said.
“Our healthcare workers have learned how to deal with the COVID-19 scourge and can now help the rest of South Africa.”
Projections versus reality
To support his views, Hudson compared the 12 June Modelling Consortium projection, which is used by the Western Cape, with PANDA’s own model.
He said the Modelling Consortium’s projection “is hardly a projection, predicting 2,600 to 9,000 deaths in the Western Cape by 15 July”.
“The model has already fallen below its mid-low confidence interval, and is heading below its lower bound by 13 July, just a month in.”
PANDA’s Gompertz projection, which was released on the same day, predicts a narrow range of 2,300 to 2,900 deaths by 15 July.
“Actual deaths are currently tracking straight down the middle. This shows Western Cape mortality has already peaked,” said Hudson.
The charts below show the two predictions compared with the actual deaths in the Western Cape.
South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium Prediction:
No comment from Professor Andrew Boulle
MyBroadband asked Professor Andrew Boulle, who is cited in the PANDA article as the person behind the Western Cape’s modelling, for comment, but he said he was unable to provide feedback.
Instead, he pointed MyBroadband to the opinion piece by the Premier of the Western Cape published in Business Day.
“This opinion piece gives context to the scenarios I presented on behalf of the Department, which while attributed to myself are actually those of two national modelling consortia,” said Boulle.
Source: www.businesstech.co.za