Mixed Fuel Price Outlook for March 2025

Mixed Fuel Price Outlook for March 2025: Petrol Up, Diesel Down

As March 2025 approaches, South African motorists can expect only modest fuel price adjustments. While petrol prices are set to rise slightly, diesel users might see a mixed outcome—one variant is still heading for a small increase, while another could see a slight drop at wholesale.

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggests that the anticipated petrol price hike is smaller than originally forecast, and diesel rates appear more encouraging than they did earlier in February.

Expected Fuel Price Changes in March

According to CEF data up to 14 February 2025, the following adjustments are projected:

Anticipated Adjustments:

• Petrol 93: Increase of 23 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: Increase of 10 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): Increase of 4 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): Decrease of 3 cents per litre
• Illuminating Paraffin: Increase of 16 cents per litre

🔹 Note: The CEF does not currently provide daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so March pricing for this fuel remains unavailable.

What’s Driving These Changes?

Fuel prices are primarily determined by two key factors: the rand/dollar exchange rate and international oil prices.

The Rand’s Influence

The rand showed notable resilience in February 2025, strengthening to around R18.50 per US dollar, an improvement from levels above R19 in January. While it fluctuated between R18.30 and R18.60, this relative strength contributed to a local fuel price “over-recovery” of approximately 10 cents per litre.

Oil Price Uncertainty

Global oil markets remain unpredictable. Despite concerns over oversupply, driven partly by lower demand from major economies like China, Brent crude has stabilized at around $75 per barrel. However, several geopolitical and economic factors continue to create uncertainty:

• US Tariff Policies: Market uncertainty has been fueled by trade measures under President Donald Trump, some of which are still held in reserve for future negotiations.
• Geopolitical Shifts: Evolving ties between the US and Russia, along with the situation in Ukraine, have raised questions about the future easing of sanctions—potentially increasing oil supply in an already saturated market.

These factors have contributed to an “under-recovery” in petrol pricing, ranging between 7 and 32 cents per litre.

What Will Prices Look Like at the Pumps?

While wholesale adjustments do not always directly translate to pump prices, here’s a look at how inland and coastal regions are expected to be affected:

Inland

Coastal

🔹 Note: Diesel pump prices may differ from these wholesale figures.

Final Decision on Fuel Prices

While CEF data provides an indication of price trends, the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources (DMRE) reminds consumers that daily snapshots do not account for other potential adjustments, such as slate levies or retail margin shifts. These factors could still impact final pump prices.

The official fuel price changes for March will take effect on Wednesday, 5 March 2025.

Final Thoughts

The March fuel price adjustments highlight the complexity of balancing domestic economic conditions with volatile global trends. While petrol is set for a moderate increase, diesel prices remain more stable, with one variant even seeing a slight drop. With a week left before the final announcement, motorists and industry stakeholders should keep an eye on market shifts to understand what’s ahead at the pumps.